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Mexico at the Trade Crossroads: Trade Policy Management Must Decide Against the T-MEC! China Grows in Intermediate Manufacturing, Necessary in Global Value Chains

The United States and Canada are targeting Mexico for its growing trade relationship with China. The figures reinforce this discontent, because while imports from its North American partners decrease, trade with the Asian giant grows.

Mexico’s imports from North America, where its T-MEC partners are located, decreased 2.23% between January and November 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, according to data from the Bank of Mexico.

In detail, purchases from the United States reached 231,681 million dollars, which represents a drop of 2.23% compared to 2023.

Imports from Canada totaled 11,879 million dollars, with a decrease of 2.22%.

This behavior contrasts with the increase in imports from China, which amounted to 119,376 million dollars, an increase of 13.84%.

The trade war declared by Donald Trump during his first term caused a loss of market for China in the United States. This led the Asian country to focus greater attention on Mexico as a trading partner.

In 2018, when tariff tensions between the United States and China began, Mexican imports from the Asian giant amounted to 83,511 million dollars. By 2023, this figure had grown significantly, reaching 114,191 million.

Exports, the other side

If we look at the other side of the coin, that is, what Mexico sells to the United States and Canada, from January to November 2024 there is an increase of 4.63% compared to 2023.

Purchases from Mexico by the United States amounted to $469.6 billion, an increase of 4.57%, and from Canada amounted to $17.5 billion, an increase of 6.21%.

And what China bought from Mexico reached 9,053 million dollars, a drop of 2.57%.

Mexico seeks to solve it

The Mexican government is aware that the increase in trade with China is causing concern among North American trading partners.

Since the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the need to replace imports from China has been raised. This strategy is consolidated as one of the main axes of the “Mexico Plan”, recently presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

The Treasury Department is aware of North America’s trade losses to China, which has led Mexico to adopt a firmer stance toward the Asian country.

Between 2000 and 2023, China’s share of global exports rose from 1.8% to 13.6%, an increase of 12 percentage points. In contrast, North America’s (Mexico, the United States and Canada) share of global trade fell from 19.8% to 13.8%.

This loss of participation came at a high cost, especially for Mexico and the United States. Canada suffered less impact, but countries with larger populations faced the loss of entire industries, jobs and economic activity, Treasury Secretary Rogelio Ramírez de la O recently acknowledged.

The “Mexico Plan” establishes two key objectives to reduce dependence on imports from China:

– Increase national content to 15% in global value chains in strategic sectors such as automotive, aerospace, electronics, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and chemicals.

– Ensure that 50% of national supplies and consumption in sectors such as textiles, footwear, furniture and toys are produced in the country.

With these actions, Mexico seeks to strengthen its internal economy, reduce its dependence on trade with China and improve its trade relationship within the North American bloc.

Source: https://expansion.mx/economia/2025/01/16/mexico-bajo-la-mira-eu-y-canada-relacion-comercial-china

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