A change in the investment goal of the Mexico Plan announced by President Claudia Sheinbaum left it as realistic and achievable. However, specialists warn that the strategy still leaves a key question unanswered: how to guarantee legal certainty to investors?
In a first document that was circulated before the official presentation of the plan, a goal of 100 billion dollars in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2030 was proposed, a goal that many considered unattainable. Instead, it was decided to prioritize a sustained increase in the ratio of investment to GDP: exceeding 25% from 2026 and reaching 28% by 2030.
The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted that the president thoroughly reviewed the figures and adjusted many of the goals. “He has asked us questions about details that sometimes we had not even considered,” he acknowledged.
From confidence to growth
The objective of ensuring that investment represents more than 25% of GDP by 2026 is seen as a message of confidence in the midst of a panorama marked by the Judicial Reform and the disappearance of autonomous organizations, says Adriana García, coordinator of economic analysis in Mexico. How are we doing?
According to Inegi data, in the third quarter of 2024, investment reached 24.3% of GDP, at current prices, a figure close to the 2026 objective. In the fourth quarter of 2011, investment reached a peak of 26%, indicating that reaching 28% by 2030 will be ambitious, but not impossible.
For García, setting goals based on investment as a percentage of GDP is more realistic than aiming for exorbitant FDI figures. “This goal reflects a focus on strengthening infrastructure, implementing technology and transforming the economy, rather than relying exclusively on high amounts of foreign investment,” he explains.
Actions such as Plan Mexico or actions that are focused on industrial policy and addressing variables that are important for the country to attract investment, regardless of Donald Trump’s entry into the United States.
Ana Gutiérrez, coordinator of foreign trade and labor market at IMCO, comments that although the United States is the main investor in Mexico, with more than 40% of FDI, there are also very significant investments from Spain, European Union countries, from Japan among others.
“So it is important to keep an eye on Mexico’s relationship with its trading partners and in particular with those of the T-MEC, but also not to lose sight of the element of infrastructure and economic structure at the national level, where it can be “do a lot to become more attractive for foreign, but also domestic, investments.”
And legal certainty?
Although Plan Mexico offers clear direction, specialists warn that it does not address how to guarantee the legal certainty that private investors, who provide the majority of the total investment, need. This not only implies respecting contracts, but also ensuring key conditions such as public safety, access to energy and supplies essential for operations.
The participation of the private sector will be crucial to achieve the goals set, since public resources are limited and must be allocated to priorities such as health, education and security.
The strategic investments contemplated in Plan Mexico present high risks, but also a potential for profitability that can only be realized with the trust and collaboration of the private sector.
Both specialists agree that legal certainty for investments is important and will not necessarily be able to be resolved with the axes of Plan Mexico.
This also has to do with the signals sent by the Mexican government and how things are going in the changes to the Judiciary and the elimination of autonomous bodies.
Among the positive points that the IMCO expert highlights is the promotion of regional content not only in sectors, but also in exports, because that is an issue that has been stagnant for several decades in Mexico.
“I think those elements could be seen as positive. But it undoubtedly depends on how the actions are carried out and how much investment there is in infrastructure and in strategic sectors, whether they are productive,” says Gutiérrez.
Source: https://expansion.mx/economia/2025/01/14/que-tan-realista-es-el-plan-mexico-meta-de-inversion
