IN UKRAINE BOTH sides are deploying millions of low-cost drones, which play a role in combat as both scouts and as weapons. The US Army, long considered a leader in this field, has been following events in Ukraine closely. But the Pentagon is only acquiring small numbers of drones at high cost. Why are American drones so expensive, and can prices be brought down?
A typical FPV (“first-person view”) attack drone costs Ukraine’s army less than $500. Based on racing quadcopters, these are typically made by small suppliers. Some are assembled at kitchen tables through a government initiative which shows people how to make drones at home. Though rough and ready, these drones can knock out a Russian tank, artillery piece or bunker from several miles away.
The nearest American equivalent is the Marine Corps’ new Bolt-M made by Anduril. This is a slicker, more polished quadcopter with more on-board intelligence and requiring less operator skill, but it performs the same basic task of hitting a target with a 1.5kg warhead. The cost though is “low tens of thousands” of dollars. The similar Rogue-1 comes in at an eye-watering $94,000 apiece. In Ukraine, FPVs are so numerous that two or more may pursue each Russian footsoldier. The US cannot issue drones quite so lavishly when each costs as much as a sports car.
Critics accuse American companies of “gold plating”, adding unnecessary expenses to push prices up, or of excessive profits. Certainly there have been cases of gross overcharging, such as when the Pentagon has bought hammers for $48 apiece when the same hammers cost $9 from another supplier. But the situation with drones is more complicated.
One issue is sourcing. Ukrainian drones are typically assembled from cheap components made in China. The Pentagon has banned its forces from acquiring Chinese drones, both because it worries about security and because it does not want its supply chain to be controlled by an adversary. Higher specifications also quickly push prices up. Most Ukrainian drones only have daylight cameras, a few are fitted with thermal imagers for night operations, which add hundreds of dollars to the price. All American military drones come with far more expensive high-resolution imagers.
For reconnaissance, Ukrainian operators typically use the Chinese DJI Mavic 3 Pro, which sells for around $3,000. The US Army’s new Short-Range Reconnaissance quadcopter will carry out similar missions. The current version costs around $20,000. The difference is partly accounted for by the need to meet US military requirements such as resistance to shock and vibration, extreme temperatures and radio interference. New capabilities, including better GPS, higher-resolution thermal imaging, automated target tracking and obstacle avoidance are pushing the price up to around $40,000. Experience suggests this type of cost spiral keeps going. And the more expensive such drones become, the less expendable and less useful they are.
And while Ukraine maintains a fleet of about 40,000 reconnaissance quadcopters, the Pentagon is acquiring about a thousand a year, so economies of scale are not kicking in. Chinese drone-maker DJI have dominated the consumer drone market since the 2010s and produce several million drones each year. In the 2010s commercial drone-makers were forced out of business in America, or into supplying the niche market for government drones. Teal and Skydio, who supply the US Army reconnaissance drones, both followed this route. George Matus, the boss of Teal, believes America needs to build up its drone infrastructure. An ecosystem of companies making flight controllers (the brains of the drone), cameras, communications and other components could enable drone manufacture at prices and quantities to rival China. Mr Matus believes this could be all achieved for the cost of a single high-tech jet fighter.
Since 2023 a Pentagon initiative called Replicator has been exploring how to produce large numbers of small drones rapidly at low cost, and how to learn from the Ukrainian experience. Replicator faces a deeply entrenched culture of expensive excellence. The American way has been to make world-beating systems, like the F-35 fighter jet and the M1 Abrams tank, regardless of cost. Making “good enough” hardware in bulk is a departure which faces resistance. In June, Replicator announced a contract to buy SwitchBlade loitering munitions, exactly the sort of expensive legacy drones that it was expected to replace.
Russia’s drone industry is ramping up. Vladimir Putin estimated Russia would make 1.4m drones in 2024. Meanwhile China has reportedly placed an order for almost 1m attack drones from one supplier. The low cost of this technology, and the fact that drones and their components can be bought easily, mean the technology is rapidly proliferating and can be found everywhere. Elon Musk, the tycoon tapped by Donald Trump to find government savings, has drawn attention to the wastefulness of America spending $100m on a manned jet while ignoring cheap, expendable drones. Unless the Pentagon agrees, America could be heavily out-droned in any future conflict.
