North American supply chain players located near Mexico have increased opportunities for the region’s trucking sector, but the upcoming change of US president could jeopardize – or encourage – trade relations.
Since former President Donald Trump replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July 2020, Mexico has become the United States’ number one trading partner. Joined.
Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former chief negotiator for the USMCA and partner at AGON Consulting, said: “In promoting trade and investment flows, the agreement is clearly working. “We are seeing investment flows to Mexico.”
Mexico has become the leader of the near-offshoring trend, showing “incredible growth” according to American Trucking Association chief economist and senior vice president of international trade and safety policy Bob Costello, due to its low-cost manufacturing. , its road networks to the US and government incentives.
‘The data on trucks entering the United States highlights the near-offshoring that is occurring,’ said Costello, noting that trucks carried 70% of the trade between the United States and Mexico, by value, compared to 56% of the trade between the United States and Canada.
However, Smith Ramos said the USMCA was due to be reviewed in 2026, which would be headed by Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as the next POTUS.
Based on his “traffic light” assessment of the impact of a Trump or Harris administration on US-Mexico relations, Smith Ramos suggested that a Harris administration could be marginally better for trade relations, due to her political ideology similar to the of the president of Mexico. , Claudia Sheinbaum.
But he warned that the aggressive campaign of both candidates against dependence on China could boost rapprochement with Mexico or could leave the country “caught in the crossfire of the trade war between the United States and China.”
explained: “Mexico has replaced China in the US market, but at the same time the United States is now turning towards Mexico and is concerned about all the investments China plans to make in Mexico. This could be an issue for the 2026 review.”
Additionally, both candidates seek to prevent illegal imports of fentanyl, which could present problems for customs procedures and inspections.
In fact, Lak Shoan, director of industry awareness policies and programs at the Canadian Trucking Alliance, said this was a “sensitive point” that needed to be addressed during the 2026 USMCA review.
“In terms of joint inspections and customs processes, the fact that different agencies carry out multiple examinations at different times remains a sore point. Simplifying some of the requirements would definitely create more efficiency at the border,” he said.
Shoan added that there is also a need to speed up the issuance of visas for drivers who need them, something that would ‘reduce costs and bureaucracy for transport operators’, according to an IRU spokesperson.
Source: https://theloadstar.com/trump-or-harris-who-will-be-better-for-revision-of-us-trade-deal-with-mexico/
